Print Performance 2020-2023
Note: for the most updated 2024 Warhol market data, click here.
In the past quarter-century, the Warhol print market has experienced stable overall growth punctuated by short bursts of volatility. The consistent appreciation has only been interrupted twice: once during a 100 percent rise followed by a 28 percent fall before and during the 2008 global financial crisis, and once during a 40 percent post-COVID rise in 2021. After rising another 11.6 percent in 2022, the market finally experienced an overdue correction in 2023, falling 12.2 percent.
The trendline since 2000 indicates that the return since then should be approximately 400 percent. After the contraction in 2023, the overall return since 2000 is 418 percent. In other words, this appears to be the same return to normalcy and stability the Warhol market found after 2008.
The Warhol Print Market Index
To further demonstrate the reliability of the Warhol print market as a high-returning investment—especially compared to major market indices—Revolver Gallery created the Warhol prints by year to the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Since 2000, the Dow Jones has returned 292 percent, and the WPMI has returned 418 percent.
WPMI vs DJIA
The Dow Jones has a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in that time period of 5.3 percent. The WPMI CAGR is 7.1 percent. This means investing in Warhols has historically returned 30 percent more each year than the general equities market. Over time, the disparity in returns has an outsized effect on investment outcome: $100,000 invested in the Dow Jones in 2000 would be worth $346,780 at the end of 2023. The same amount invested in the WPMI would be worth $518,460.
The Top Five Index
A subset of the Warhol print market has achieved an even higher CAGR since the turn of the century: 11.2 percent, or more than double that of the Dow Jones. That subset is the top five prints by sales volume, which represent about one-fifth of all Warhol print sales in the past twenty years. These five series were used to generate a second index, which is compared to the WPMI in the following figure.
All Prints vs Top 5 by Sales Volume
While the overall print market fell in 2023, the Top Five index actually rose by 2 percent, setting a new all-time high. Three of the prints (Mao, Mick Jagger, and Marilyn Monroe) dipped slightly in value, as predicted in last year’s report. The other two prints, Ads and Myths, rose considerably.
A rise in one and fall in the other increased the gap between the Top Five and the rest of the market. The top five series closely followed the performance of the overall market until 2005. Then a gap appeared between the two as the most popular prints started gaining value faster than the lesser-traded prints. That gap has widened considerably since, setting a new record in 2023.
All Prints vs Top 5 Gap
Three consecutive years of increases in the Top Five is unprecedented in the Warhol market. The departure from the performance of both Andy’s entire print portfolio and the Dow Jones is a testament to the enduring investment power of the strongest icons that Andy created.
Print series Value Appreciation 2000-2022
From 2000–2021, the top fifteen Warhol prints rose an average of 1,240 percent. Through 2022, they rose 1,647 percent. In 2023, that number dropped slightly, to a still-impressive 1,520 percent.
The drop was almost entirely due to the lackluster performance of Reigning Queens, which fell from a 2,654 percent gain through 2022 to an 823 percent gain in 2023, taking it out of the top fifteen. Also dropping out of the top fifteen rankings this year are Campbell’s I and Kimiko. Red Lenin and $ (Quadrant) are not included on the list either, as neither sold in 2023.
Replacing those five portfolios are Muhammad Ali, Ten Portraits of Jews of the Twentieth Century, Flowers, Shoes, and Flowers (Hand-Colored). The latter three saw fair gains that bumped them onto the lowest rungs of the top fifteen list.
The first two landed near the top, however, at #2 and #5, respectively. Ten Portraits jumped dramatically due to the sales of two Einstein prints— of only four Einstein sales in the last decade—reinforcing the theme of icons driving value in the 2020s.
Muhammad Ali was given an estimate of $70,000–$90,000, then sold for $165,000. That was nearly double its previous high, set exactly one year earlier. The primary differentiator: a bonus signature on the back that read in part “From Mohammad Ali.” The three prints that sold in 2022, none of which were signed by Ali, went for an average of less than one third of the print that sold in 2023.
Half of the prints have appeared on the list all three years since its inception: Sunset, Alexander the Great, Mick Jagger, Endangered Species, Grace Kelly, Goethe, and Venus. The unexpected (and ironic) sole print that has seen consecutive year-over-year gains for the past three years is Turtle—proving, perhaps, that slow and steady really does win the race.
Top Fifteen Prints by Return 2000-2022
These top performers fluctuate each year as the relevance and value of prints changes. Only prints with greater than twenty-five public sales from 2000–2023 were considered. For prints with no sales in 2000, information was imputed back to 2000 using the WPMI and the earliest sales for the print after 2000. That price was compared to the average sales price in 2023 to determine the percentage gain.*
1) Sunset
APPRECIATION: +2,532%
2) Muhammad Ali
APPRECIATION: +2,526%
3) Alexander the Great
APPRECIATION: +2,232%
4) Birth of Venus
APPRECIATION: +1,982%
7) Ten Portraits of Jews of the Twentieth Century
APPRECIATION: +1,586%
6) Endangered Species
APPRECIATION: +1,568%
7) Mick Jagger
APPRECIATION: +1,514%
8) Grace Kelly
APPRECIATION: +1,371%
9) Camouflage
APPRECIATION: +1,284%
10) Turtle
APPRECIATION: +1,085%
11) Goethe
APPRECIATION: +1,029%
12) Flowers
APPRECIATION: +1,022%
13) Shoes
APPRECIATION: +982%
14) Flowers (Hand-Colored)
APPRECIATION: +969%
15) Wayne Gretzky
APPRECIATION: +962%