Print Portfolio Performance 2000-2023
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Warhol's Portfolios
After graduating from Carnegie Tech, Andy Warhol’s dream was to find work in New York City—but he doubted his own talent. So he instead applied to teach art at a school in India. They returned his portfolio with a notice of rejection. Dejected, Andy decided to try New York anyway— despite his mother telling him that he would “end up dead in the gutter without a penny in his pocket.”
He took with him a paper bag that contained his one valuable asset: a portfolio filled with drawings of people and flowers. At an interview with Harper’s Bazaar, a cockroach crawled out of the bag when he opened it to exhibit his work. (Andy said the editor felt sorry for him, and he got the job.) His friends took to calling him “Raggedy Andy” or “Andy Paperbag.” Two decades later, Andy returned to that time, creating art that was a redemption of his impoverished beginning.
From the mid ‘60s through the early ‘70s, Warhol’s art underwent a period of transition. Having publicly given up painting, he began screenprinting images on paper that resembled his canvas masterpieces. The prints were usually iterations of his paintings, depicting their subject and capturing their essence while remaining distinct from them.
In 1967, five years after painting Marilyn Monroe, Warhol selected her image as the subject of his first portfolio of glamorous prints. After establishing a print-publishing business called Factory Additions, he used the same publicity still that he had used for dozens of paintings to create a set of ten different-colored screenprints.
The resulting prints could not have been more opposite of the young artist who arrived in New York. He had seemed to be all of one color: from that pale, wispy hair to the wan eyes to the worn chinos. With a single dark exception, these Marilyns were rich, with hot reds and pinks and yellows and other saturated hues transforming an icon’s face into an even deeper work of fiction.
And these prints, unlike the illustrated drawings with which he arrived, were masterpieces. Creating each image was more complex—and more mechanical—than painting, requiring five different silkscreens to achieve the finished effect. These were intended to be framed and placed in a museum, not a paper bag.
Portfolios became a way of establishing both himself and his subjects as grand, enduring icons—as he had always wanted it. In rapid succession, Warhol created print portfolios of Flash – November 22, 1963 (1968), Campbell’s Soup (1968-69), Flowers (1970), Electric Chairs (1971), and Sunset (1972). After painting Mao, his first painting of the decade, in 1972, Warhol’s manager and quasi-art director Fred Hughes decided that all new paintings would be accompanied by a full print portfolio.
Despite this, Warhol’s portfolio print-making ebbed through the late ‘70s. It returned in full force in the mid ‘80s, with about half of his portfolios being created in the six years before his death.
Warhol’s portfolios were intended to be displayed together as a single piece of art, demonstrating the power of repetition. By design, they have the quality of a film—with variables such as color, contrast, and image playing out against a constant background.
Two factors, however, generally kept portfolios from being displayed as a whole.
- Single prints are quite large by themselves. A print from the Myths or Endangered Species portfolios measures more than three feet per side, and a single print is capable of visually filling a wall on its own.
- Portfolios comprise between two and sixteen images. A portfolio of Reigning Queens with no space between them would fill 134 sq. ft. of wall space.
The scale and number of the individual prints made whole portfolios nearly impossible to display in their entirety in a typical residential room in the ‘60s and ‘70s—especially in New York City and other big cities in which Warhol’s collector base was concentrated.
As a result, most portfolios were slowly broken up and sold as individual prints. While no exact numbers exist, very few portfolios with matching edition numbers remain intact; the number decreases every year. Complete portfolios have now become so rare that some larger portfolios, such as Ads, do not come up for sale for years at a time.
As portfolios have become rarer, both living spaces and museums have grown larger, increasing demand for artwork that can fill those spaces. Additionally, more private owners, gallerists, and exhibitors can afford to purchase portfolios than could forty years ago.
Only about fifty Warhol portfolios are purchased per year.
Between 2000–2023, approximately 634 complete Warhol portfolios were sold publicly. Assuming private sales are equal to public, that is an average of only about fifty portfolios purchased per year.
The imbalance between supply and demand has led to a swift, steady rise in the value of nearly all portfolios, far faster than that of individual prints. In 2000, the average sales price of a portfolio was $29,000; in 2023, it was $471,000. As portfolios become increasingly rare, look for their value appreciation to continue to outpace that of individual Warhol prints.*
Portfolio Sales and Performance 2023
As we predicted last year, the overall number of Warhol portfolios sold dropped sharply in 2023. After a record high of sixty portfolios sold in 2022, only thirty-six sold in 2023—a 40 percent decrease. Many of the bestselling portfolios, like Electric Chair and Cowboys and Indians (tied for #2), sold zero times in 2023. There are two primary reasons for the dearth of portfolio sales: the primacy of Warhols, and current economic conditions.
Portfolio Sales by Year
When collectors and investors decide to sell art, they tend to hold onto their Warhols as long as possible. They know that Warhols are more likely than the art of nearly any other artist to appreciate and to hold their value in the long term. Because portfolios appreciate even faster than prints, and are generally worth more than the sum of their prints, owners are highly reluctant to put them up for sale.
Additionally, more than 70 percent of Warhol sales take place in the U.S. With U.S. interest rates at their highest point since the dot-com bubble burst in 2000, there is lower demand for multimillion-dollar portfolios. Smart owners, gallerists, and auction houses are likely to wait until they know there will be an appetite for their high-dollar portfolios before they put them on the market.
Out of fifty-one distinct portfolios that have publicly sold since 2000, less than half saw sales in 2023. While 2024 is likely to be another low- volume year as collectors and investors hold onto their most valuable Warhols, the market cannot sustain low portfolio sales for long. Due to estate sales and baby boomer divestiture, portfolio sales volume is likely to pick up in 2025, with the strongest value going to the portfolios that have seen few intermediate sales.
On the low 2023 sales volume, the average sales price of a Warhol portfolio dropped 7 percent. That follows a 32 percent drop in 2022, indicating a rapid stabilizing of the market. The decrease, however, is skewed, partially by the fact that premium portfolios are not coming to market. For example, of the top five portfolios by average sales price, only two single portfolios sold in 2023.
Additionally, low-end portfolios such as $ (4), Sex Parts, and Skulls sank the average price. And Saint Apollonia, another low-end portfolio, had the most sales in 2023, with four sales. The average price of those seven portfolios is $62,000—or 13 percent of the average of all portfolios.
Finally, one figure was noticeably absent from the market: Marilyn Monroe. Last year’s report called 2022 “The Year of Marilyn.” The record-breaking sale of Shot Sage Blue Marilyn propelled interest in the accompanying prints and portfolios, sending them to lofty valuations. More Marilyn Monroe portfolios sold than in any other year except 2015, and they were all the top five Warhol portfolios by public sales price in 2022, with an average sales price nearly twice that of the next portfolio.
Without the highest-value portfolios, with a high-representation of low-end portfolios, and with only a single Marilyn Monroe, it is likely that value-wise this was an even year for Warhol portfolios. In fact, the median sales price showed a slight increase year over year.
Median Portfolio Sales Price by Year
Campbell’s Soup I is two entries in the top five: one for $1,814,500 and the other for $1,008,000. What made such an extreme difference between the two? One was in better condition, with brighter colors. It was also one of a set of twenty-six artist proofs. And importantly, it was acquired from the sole owner following ownership by the Andy Warhol Estate. Condition and provenance remain strong factors in the sales price of a portfolio.
Top 5 Portfolios by Public Sales Price 2023
Despite the overall tepid portfolio market, there were a few remarkable sales:
A Flowers portfolio sold for $2,349,000, marking a 57 percent increase from its sale price in 2022. The high valuation makes Flowers the highest-returning Warhol portfolio from 2000–2023. To give a sense of how inflated estimates have become in the Warhol market, the sale was still below the low estimate. The high estimate was triple what a Flowers portfolio sold for in 2022.
Underscoring the fact that deals can still be found on Warhols in unlikely places, a rare full Queen Elizabeth II portfolio was purchased in Canada for $701,000. That’s less than half the price of a portfolio sold in 2022, and even less than a single Queen Elizabeth II sold for last year. Purchases like these are extremely rare, and require a high level of market expertise to execute.
A Hammer and Sickle portfolio sold for about half of its 2021 price. Due to the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, the communist symbols have fallen out of favor by collectors for fear their ownership might indicate support. It is likely that an extended period of time will pass before further returns are seen on these portfolios.
Top 5 Portfolios by Appreciation 2022-2023
The following are the five portfolios with the highest increases in value from 2022 to 2023. Goethe continues to see high demand, with half of its public sales this century occurring since 2019. As predicted in last year’s report, Endangered Species continued to see solid gains. And Moonwalk became one of only two portfolios to rise for two years straight.
Portfolio Sales and Performance 2000-2023
The median Warhol portfolio sale price has displayed a steady upward trajectory since 2000, with brief periods of weakness following shortly after economic turmoil: in 2002, 2009, 2017, and 2022. Last year’s Warhol report predicted that if the United States entered a recession, the maximum portfolio price would experience a strong drop similar to its performance in previous recessions. Instead, both the economy and Warhol’s most valuable portfolios experienced a soft landing, and the median value of a Warhol portfolio resumed its climb.
The top five portfolios have made an excellent 21st-century investment. Their CAGR over the past twenty-three years has been 19.1 percent, compared to the Dow Jones CAGR of 5.24 percent. While it might seem as if the growth of these top portfolios is behind them, their value continued to rise this year, with an average gain of 23 percent. Only two other Warhol portfolios rose in value this year.
This year, there is only one change in the rankings: Campbell’s Soup I is replacing Cowboys and Indians as #3, simply because the latter did not sell in 2023. Collectors considering placing their Cowboys and Indians portfolio on the market may find a favorable window to do so in 2024.
The performance of the top five portfolios demonstrates Warhol’s extraordinary talent for selecting images with enduring value. Many of these portfolios represent universal, timeless themes that have completely permeated popular culture. All have retained their relevance for nearly a half-century, and remain relevant for the generation to come.
Average top-five portfolio return since 2000: 5,148%
Top Five Portfolios by Appreciation 2000-2023
*Note: The above data outlines the performance of the Warhol portfolio market since 2000 and in 2023. Only twenty-seven portfolios have had ten or more sales since 2000; those portfolios were used to calculate top returns. Where portfolios did not have sales in a given year, appreciation was calculated based on the performance of the overall portfolio market using the first sale of that portfolio after 2000 and the most recent sale at the time of publication.
