The Warhol Market in 2022
Note: for the most updated 2023 Warhol market data, click here.
In the early 1980s, after two decades of success as an eminent artist, Warhol and his work began to lose their luster. Critics branded him a mere “business artist,” arguing that his new paintings and prints were less dynamic, he had settled into a cool cynicism toward art, and that his commissioned portraits made him a sellout. The capitalist mindset of art that he had built his success on thus formed the basis of his own opposition.
In 2021, U.S. central bank policy created an expanding economy that mirrored Warhol’s broad success. With long-term low interest rates and a doubling of the money supply, asset prices rose and high-net- worth individuals saw their wealth grow. As with Warhol, however, the moves that created the growth came with necessary repercussions that were less favorable—and those came to the fore in 2022.
Inflation soared to its highest point since Andy Warhol created the Dollar Sign portfolios in 1982. The Federal Reserve moved quickly to prevent the economy from overheating, raising interest rates seven times over the course of the year. As a result, the stock market saw heavy declines, with the NASDAQ dropping 33 percent; cryptocurrencies fell off a cliff, with Bitcoin dropping 60 percent; and NFTs fell out of favor.
A Return to Normalcy
The rapid declines disproportionately affected retail and crypto investors, which mildly suppressed the lower end of the Warhol market. The middle and upper-end of the Warhol market, however, rose overall. Investors who were disillusioned by equities, seeking a safe haven from inflation, and burned by cryptocurrency turned to one of the best-performing asset classes of the 21st century: Warhol prints and paintings. As the bubbles of risky assets like NFTs and crypto burst, and retail investors with them, high-net-worth investors and collectors returned to what they know and appreciate—and know will appreciate: fine art.
Since investors in Warhols are primarily not borrowers, a high-interest rate only mattered in determining what investment would increase in value the most. This resulted in Warhol’s high-end prints and paintings thriving. Once again, it was Warhol’s profit-seeking art that breathed life back into not only his market but also the entire art market.
One Man Art Market
The last edition of this report predicted that the temporary pause in the Warhol collecting and investing market in 2021 would only serve to build up demand for his work. This proved itself to be true in 2022, when Warhol total public sales rose substantially. Some collectors who saw the value of their art rise in 2021 wanted to take their profit, and investors who lost money in cryptocurrencies and equities were forced to exchange art for cash. As has always been the case in the Warhol market, demand was high.
This was driven in large part by the sale of the #1 and #3 most expensive Warhol works ever: Shot Sage Blue Marilyn for $170 million and White Disaster (White Car Crash 19 Times) for $85.3 million. The number of lots sold rose to an all-time high, 21 percent higher than the previous record set in 2019.
For the first time in eight years, Andy Warhol reclaimed his spot as the #1 bestselling artist by public sales revenue in the world, displacing Monet and Picasso in the process, a testament to the enduring value of his work while many novel investment instruments faded into oblivion.
Warhol Total Public Sales Revenue (Millions)
Warhol Artist Rank by Sales Volume
–
2021
2022
Percent Change
Lots Sold
1,589
2,104
+32.4%
Sales
$292M
$501M
+71.6%
As his career did in the mid-1980s, the Warhol market tends to revert to stability and subsequent growth amid chaos. The broader economic picture for 2023 does not look promising, and investors are unsure whether the Federal Reserve will facilitate a soft landing or a hard landing for the economy. In environments of uncertainty, Warhol collectors tend to hold on to their art, knowing it will retain its value even when everything else is in flux.
